Guide

Live slots over healthy span, over the share that survives

The cadence is a formula, not a calendar. Live slots, divided by how long your creatives stay healthy, divided again by the share that lasts. This page walks each of those numbers, then the five cheap refreshes to exhaust before commissioning anything new. Four slots, a three-week span and one in three surviving comes out at fifteen a month. You will finish holding your own quota.

A person plans on a calendar at a desk with a laptop and phone, May 2022.
Photo by Edge Training on Pexels
Healthy creatives most ad sets need live at once
3-5
Creatives to produce for five replacements at one in three
15
Cheap refreshes to try before commissioning anything new
5

Two numbers you already have: healthy span and live slots

First, how long your creatives stay healthy. Plot performance against days since launch across your last dozen. Read off the point where the median one has decayed halfway towards your kill threshold.

Second, how many healthy creatives your spend needs live at once. For most accounts that is three to five per ad set, which lets the delivery system choose without starving each candidate.

The first is an afternoon with a spreadsheet. The second is a division you can do in your head.

Those two give you a maintenance rate. Four live, each lasting three weeks, means about four new creatives every three weeks to hold position.

That is maintenance before any growth or experimentation. Work out your own number before reading on. If it already exceeds what you shipped last month, the rest of this page is about your account.

The formula, in the order the numbers arrive

Everything before the last box is measurement. The last box is the one that changes what you have to buy.

  1. Healthy span

    Read off your own decay curve

  2. Live slots

    Three to five per ad set, for most budgets

  3. Maintenance rate

    Slots divided by span

  4. Survival rate

    The share of what you make that lasts

  5. Production quota

    Maintenance divided by survival

Then divide by the survival rate, and the comfortable cadence collapses

Maintenance arithmetic assumes every creative you produce becomes a healthy live creative, which is not remotely true.

Published benchmarks put the winner share at 5 to 8 percent, per Motion's analysis of 550,000+ Meta ads. Use a looser bar than winner if you like.

Even on a looser bar, most teams find well under half of what they produce is still running after two weeks.

So take the maintenance number and divide by your own survival rate. Four replacements needed at one in three surviving means producing twelve.

Now picture twelve a month where each video needs a brief, a shoot slot, an editor and two revision rounds. That is not a plan. It is why the schedule quietly slips every quarter.

  • Healthy span: measured from your own decay curve, not assumed.
  • Live slots: three to five per ad set for most budgets.
  • Maintenance rate = live slots divided by healthy span.
  • Production quota = maintenance rate divided by your survival rate.

Four live slots, a three-week span, one in three surviving

Maintenance is the middle bar. The top bar is what you have to actually produce to hit it.

  • Healthy creatives live4
  • Replacements a month5
  • Creatives to produce15

This is the whole editor

Highlight a phrase and a clip lands on those exact words. No timeline, no keyframes, no layers.

CLIPS · 5I have thisexact conversationeverysingle week. Somebody sits down and says,oh yeah, I takecinnamonevery day.And honestly, doc, I have no idea if it works.So let me tell you what isin that capsule.a clip lands on these wordscut from the editTAKING CINNAMONEVERY DAY?is it doing anythingHeadlineMusicCaptionsTHIS VIDEOLength25.0sClips5Words removed18Export video

Three signals pull a refresh forward, and one should push it back

Frequency climbing past your historical tolerance while the three-second view rate slides below the creative's own baseline. That is exposure fatigue arriving with about a week of notice.

A budget increase. Spending more reaches further into the audience. Creative that worked on the easiest segment often does not travel. Plan new creative alongside a spend increase rather than after it disappoints.

A seasonal shift in the auction. When costs rise across the category, weak creative gets exposed first. A roster you were comfortable with becomes marginal.

The signal that should push a refresh back gets ignored constantly. A creative comfortably under your cost threshold should keep running, whatever the calendar says.

Pausing a performing ad to obey a schedule is throwing money away to feel organised.

Set the review as a question rather than a date. Is this creative still under threshold, and has frequency passed the level where your last several started sliding. Two answers, thirty seconds, no calendar involved.

Five cheap refreshes cost less than one new concept

Producing an entirely new concept is the expensive form of refresh. Exhaust the cheap form first. Recognition happens in the opening frames, and the opening is the cheapest part to change.

A new opening on the same body. A shorter cut. A different caption style. Music on where it was off. Different footage over the same phrases.

Each can reset attention on a proven body for a fraction of a new production. One of them usually buys another fortnight from a creative you already trust.

Work down that list in order. The opening is the cheapest lever, and the one that moves the most.

Log which refresh you used and what it bought. After two quarters you will know which lever works on your audience and stop guessing in the Monday meeting.

Cheap refresh against a new concept

Everything in the left column is a change to a proven body. The right column is a fresh bet on an unproven one.

Refresh a proven bodyCommission a new concept
What changesOpening, length, captions, music, footageThe argument itself, from scratch
What it costsMinutes on a transcript, 20 credits a minuteA brief, a shoot slot and revision rounds
What it buysOften another fortnight from a known winnerOne more shot at a 5 to 8 percent rate
When it stops workingOnce the body itself has been consumedNever. It is the only move left at that point

Every cheap refresh is a mark on the transcript, not a new brief

That workflow is what Cutroom is built around. One take, up to three minutes, becomes a finished 9:16 MP4. Every cheap refresh is an adjustment on the transcript.

Trim the opening. Delete a line and the cut rebuilds around it. Change the pace and the whole piece re-cuts. Swap the footage over a phrase. Turn music on for 20 credits.

Each of those exports at 20 credits per output minute. Nowhere else is the fifth refresh of a proven body priced like the first one.

The ceiling is worth knowing before you plan around it. Once several openings have run, the body itself has been consumed. Restyling then buys nothing, and the account needs a new recording.

The other facts to plan around. Somebody at your company records the take. Three minutes is the upload ceiling. Every export is a 9:16 MP4, and there is no timeline underneath.

So the sequence is short. Measure the span. Do the division. Exhaust the cheap refreshes. Then record again, and have the replacement live the same day.

Questions people ask

Is there a rule of thumb if I have no data yet?
Plan a new creative into every live ad set weekly, then measure and adjust. Treat it as a placeholder until your own decay curve exists, and replace the rule with the arithmetic once you have a dozen creatives of history.
Should I pause a fatigued creative or let it run?
Pause it once it is consistently above your cost threshold, and keep the file. If the cause was exposure, a rest of several weeks sometimes buys a second, shorter run at reduced performance.
Does refreshing too often hurt performance?
It can, if constant roster changes keep the delivery system relearning. Batch your changes on a predictable cadence instead of trickling them in one at a time.
How do I refresh when my audience is small?
Small audiences saturate fast, so creative refresh has less headroom to help. Beyond a point the answer is a wider audience, a new market or a new offer. Producing more videos into an exhausted pool is the most expensive way to discover that.
Who should not chase the quota this formula produces?
Anyone whose curve says the audience is saturated rather than the creative tired. Widen the audience or change the offer first. And if the quota lands at fifteen a month and nobody will film, book creators on a retainer rather than buying editing software you will not feed.

Live slots divided by healthy span, divided by your survival rate. That is the quota. One take in and a finished vertical ad out is the only production shape that meets it every week.

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